Congress of the Left

This weekend the SLD have helped organise a Congress of the Left In Warsaw. It brings together a range of groups and individuals from different traditions, although interestingly excludes the liberal populist Palikot Movement. Below is an article (Polska Wersja tutaj) on the congress.

Is something starting to change on the Polish left?   A movement calling for the resignation of Gronkiewicz-Waltz in Warsaw, the ongoing campaigns against the closing of schools around the country; the growing radicalisation and unity amongst trade unions; the stabilisation of the SLD and programmatic turn to the left on issues such as poverty; the return of Trybuna and finally the holding of a Congress of the Left next weekend. Taken on their own these green shoots of resurgence may not seem much. Even together they are fragmented elements of a political movement that lacks coherence and direction. But after years of decline it does seem as though the left may finally be in a position to start rebuilding itself again. 

So what lies behind this change in events? Well, to steal a phrase, it’s the economy stupid. The ability of PO to become the first government in Poland’s history to be reelected was primarily due to the sustained economic growth and fall in unemployment that occurred during its first term in office. The slogan that Poland was Europe’s ‘green island’ may have stunk of cheap propaganda – and contradicted many socio-economic indicators – yet it was built upon some real economic advance. Tusk represented Poland’s new post-political elite – easy on the eye and slick in presentation, symbolising the country’s on-going  modernisation. 

Yet once the EU funds ran out, so did the economic growth. Once Poland’s youth were no longer able to satisfy their dreams in London or Dublin, so social frustration returned. The government had no strategy for sustained growth; it failed to invest public money in projects that would be of long-term benefit to the country; it could not rebuild a labour market to entice young Poles to return or stay in the country; it continued the degradation and commercialisation of essential public services like health, education and transport. The green island is now slowly sinking into a sea of red, and as it does so the passivity and arrogance of the government has become apparent. 

In these conditions the fear about the opposition wanes, although the old complaint that there is no alternative remains. PiS can mobilise their core supporters but no more (although this may be enough for them to regain power in an election with a low turnout); as they offer no solutions to Poland’s growing problems. And although the SLD may try to regain its credentials as a real left party in Poland, it is still restrained by the baggage of its past failures. But outside of this party political game, activists are beginning to mobilise and offer some resistance to the destructive economic policies of the government. 

The question that is raised is whether the organisations of the left will be able capitalise upon the growing frustrations within society. The Congress of the Left offers some prospect for bringing together a number of social and political currents into a new left movement of activity. Alternatively, it could go down as yet another failed attempt by the leaders of the left to impose their political authority and end as just  another talking shop where no new ideas or direction are found.

Scepticism about the present SLD leadership amongst many on the left remains. Is their conversion to more left-leaning policies an act of pragmatic cynicism or a real political conversion? Whatever the answer to this question is, the Congress of the Left has been made possible due to one real success on the part of the SLD. In face of another attempt to weaken the left from the liberal centre, the SLD has helped to defend the autonomy of the left by opposing the rise of the Palikot Movement. Despite decades of different attempts to build a so-called non-communist left, the SLD continues to stand as the sole representative of the mainstream left. It is the only party in Poland that has the political authority and organizational strength to pull together different currents on the left. Yet on the other hand,  it has reached a glass ceiling in its support that it cannot break through and as yet has failed to produce a new younger leadership that could take the party forward.  

The reality is that the SLD needs the support of these new movements and activists as much as the wider left needs the SLD. The Congress of Left offers an opportunity for the SLD to show that it is willing to support these movements and give them political expression in parliament. Simultaneously, the growth of new social movements creates a new pressure upon the SLD to maintain its left course. In these circumstances it is important that the whole of the left recognises that unity between its diverse elements is crucial. But such unity cannot be built upon ideas of identity or past political affiliation. Rather the Congress of the Left should definitively draw a line between what it means to be or not to be on the left in contemporary Poland.

The dividing line in Polish politics is the same one that is forming in other European countries. It is between whether one is for austerity or not; whether one supports investment to drive economic growth and create jobs or is in favour of cutting public spending. Past political biographies or sides taken during previous conflicts have no meaning in this discussion. The left has to decide which side it is on now and then agree to act upon this. It will involve a plurality of activity and an acceptance that there are differences of opinions on many issues. It is only in this way that the left can rebuild its credibility (both inside and outside of parliament) and begin to offer a real alternative to the PO-PiS oligarchy that continues to hold power. 

Poland - The Green Island Sinking into a Sea of Red

A special edition of the CESifo Journal, (published by the CESifo group Munich) has been devoted to the issue of the Polish economy. It consists of a number of articles, including one of mine entitled  "Poland – The Green Island Sinking into a Sea of Red".

The Left Should Learn from the Experiences of France

Polska Wersja Tutaj....

 

The recent meeting of the SPD’s candidate for German Chancellor, Peer Steinbrueck,  at Warsaw University took place in an atmosphere of optimism. The feeling was that the left is heading towards victory in the EU’s largest and most important economy. Speaking at the meeting, Aleksander Kwaśniewski remarked that the last time he had shared a platform with Adam Michnik was during a  similar meeting before the election of Francois Hollande as President of France. He joked that he hoped they would bring Steinbrueck similar luck, and we were left anticipating a victory in Germany that would provide the European left with a new opportunity to shape the future of a Europe that remains in the economic doldrums. 

Although Kwaśniewski’s remark was meant as a light-hearted quip, it reveals much about the current situation facing the European left. On the one hand, social democratic parties have the opportunity to take advantage of the unpopularity of many right-wing governments throughout Europe. This was certainly the case in France, where the electorate chose Hollande and his Socialist Party as an alternative to Sarkozy’s failed administration. This scenario may repeat in Germany, where an economic slowdown is weakening support for Merkel and her party. It is certainly probable that the British Labour Party will be able to capitalise on the growing unpopularity of the Conservative-Liberal coalition government at the next general election.  

But move further into the peripheries of Europe, where the crisis has hit the hardest, and the picture does not look quite so rosy. In Spain, where support for the ruling right wing party has nearly halved since the last elections, the Socialist Party’s support still remains lower at just 20%. Support for Greek’s social democratic party slumped during last year’s parliamentary elections, with the more radical Syriza party overtaking them as the main representative of the Greek left. These centre-left parties lost support due to them implementing policies of austerity whilst in government, that helped to further erode the living standards of their populations. 

A similar situation is recurring presently in France. Just a year after being elected as President, Hollande has suffered an unprecedented fall in popularity. Nearly 70% of society has declared itself as being disappointed with his performance  and according to opinion polls Sarkozy would win a comfortable majority if an election were now to be held. Hollande and his party are losing the support of many of their core supporters, and worryingly many disaffected voters are now looking to the far-right Front Nationale (FN) as an alternative. For example, in a recent re-run election for a seat in the National Assembly, the Socialist Party candidate was defeated at the first round and during the second round of voting the centre-right candidate only narrowly beat his rival from the FN (gaining 51.4% of the vote against the FN’s 48.6%).

The reason for the slump in support for Hollande, has been his administration’s inability to reverse the country’s economic decline. France has just entered a ‘triple dip’ recession, after its economy declined by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2013. The French economy is now 0.4% smaller than when Hollande took office a year ago and unemployment is approaching 11%. 

 Despite being elected on a political platform opposing the austerity policies of Sarkozy, Hollande has essentially continued with the economic programme of his predecessor. He has argued that France has to undergo a period of public spending cuts and tax rises in order to make the French economy more ‘competitive’. Public sector jobs are being cut and their salaries frozen. Although these austerity policies are mild compared with that in many other European countries,  deficit reduction has become the primary  aim of the government. The lack of an alternative investment policy, to boost growth and jobs, is  fuelling the increasing unpopularity of Hollande in French society. 

The lesson for the European left is not only that austerity does not work, but that it leads to a rapid fall in support for left governing parties. As the left is a political movement that is supposed to protect workers and society’s excluded, when it does the opposite it tends to be severely punished. Furthermore, the combination of an economic downturn and an unpopular left creates the perfect conditions for the rise of xenophobia and racism upon which the far-right thrive. 

The Polish left is not excluded from this general process, although its circumstances are indeed unique. The SLD has still not recovered from the failures of its last term in office, which led to such a large collapse in its vote, that two parties from the right have been able to dominate politics for nearly a decade. Support for the PO government is beginning to wane, driven by an economy that is now stagnating (GDP only rose by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2013). This is opening up a new period of uncertainty and unpredictability in Polish politics. 

The likes of Kwaśniewski and Michink will continue to promote the idea that the left should seek an alliance with the liberal centre. The decline and political fragmentation of PO may lead to some desperate liberal currents inside the party to look for new alliances on the left. All such political projects (the latest being Europa Plus) have ended in political failure for the Polish left. Even if it were  able to gain some political power (e.g. through the SLD entering a coalition government with PO) this shortcut to government would leave it tied to an economic programme that would worsen the living standards of the population. As the experiences of France and beyond have shown this would only harm the left, further erode its remaining social support and open up the way for the most divisive elements on the right to grow.

Cięcia duże – sukcesów brak

Kiedy MFW zaczyna nawoływać rząd twojego kraju do złagodzenia polityki głębokich cięć budżetowych, to wiedz, że coś jest nie w porządku.

Tymczasem właśnie w kwietniu 2012 roku  Międzynarodowy Fundusz Walutowy stwierdził , że brytyjski rząd powinien rozważyć spowolnienie reform opartych na radykalnych oszczędnościach i przyjąć bardziej elastyczną politykę ekonomiczną, jako że dotychczas stosowane rozwiązania negatywnie wpływają na stan brytyjskiej gospodarki.

Wciąż w stagnacji

Dane makroekonomiczne są w istocie alarmujące. Wielka Brytania ledwie uniknęła bezprecedensowej trzeciej recesji w ciągu ostatnich pięciu lat, dzięki temu, że jej PKB wzrósł o skromne 0,3 proc. w pierwszym kwartale 2013 r. Od ostatniego kwartału 2011 r. produkcja przemysłowa wzrosła o zaledwie 0,4 proc., kurcząc się przez dziewięć miesięcydosięgnęły ją skutki globalnego kryzysu gospodarczego.

minionego roku. Brytyjska gospodarka jest więc niewątpliwie w fazie stagnacji i nie może wrócić na ścieżkę trwałego wzrostu po tym, jak

Czytaj Więcej..... 

The Myth of Self-Employment

As Poland's unemployment rate approaches 15%, there are also many other problems on Poland's labour market. It has one of the highest amount of workers employed on temporary insecure (so-called junk) contracts, that has grown rapidly over the past decade. It also has a huge number of people (27% of all the employed) who are self-employed. Whilst this has been presented as an example of the entrepreneurship of the Polish population, it is more often than not another way of shifting labour costs onto working people.

An interesting article in Social Europe looks at this: 

The downfall of communism in Poland cried for the rebirth of entrepreneurship, believed to be one of the tools for rebuilding civil society. With time passing by faith in entrepreneurship has brought it to schools as a subject taught to young people on the threshold of adulthood. Accession to the EU mainstreamed the term, which together with “innovation” and “creativity” settled for good in the modernization newspeak. And entrepreneurship has become a remedy for financial crisis, that finally flooded the green island of Poland, proclaimed by Prime Minister Donald Tusk in 2010.

The concept of entrepreneurship has adopted a very peculiar form though. According to a GfK survey from 2012, the young generation of Poles is the most enthusiastic about entrepreneurship in Europe. What’s more, Poles practise high levels of entrepreneurship as measured by the percentage of self-employed in the total workforce. They represent 23% of all employed, which is a stunning number compared to the EU27 average of 15%. One can presume that both creative attitudes and innovative actions have been released. However, of almost 3 million self-employed only 1/5 are employers. The remaining 2,25 million other entrepreneurs only employ themselves. As a study of the Polish Agency for Enterprise Development showed, the micro sector in Poland is less stable than in other EU countries\

Read more here.....

Investment Not Destruction

Polska wersja tutaj....

These are times of austerity right? Economic growth is slow, government income reduced and public finances strained. Tusk’s government is seeking to reduce its social spending, freeze the salaries of public sector workers, increase the retirement age and maintain the increased rate of VAT. Times are tough and the belt needs tightening. 

However, in one area the government is rapidly increasing its spending, not just in real terms but in relation to most other European countries: the military. In 2013 the Polish government will increase its defence spending by nearly 7% - raising it to an annual total of 31bn złoty  – and plans to invest a further 100bn złoty on defence by 2020.

 In 2012, Poland was already spending more than 1.9% of its GDP on defence, one of the highest proportions in the whole of the EU. On average EU countries spend 1.61% of their GDP on the military. Only the UK and France spend more than 2% of their GDP on defence (as they seek to protect their failing imperial ambitions), with the next highest being  Greece and Cyprus that are hardly models for emulation when it comes to budget policy. Whilst the Polish government spends more on its military compared to most other European governments,  it also invests less on social security (18.5% compared to an EU average of 26.4%) and health (7% compared to 9%). 

The question to be answered is whether this disproportionate amount spent on defence is justifiable and brings Poland any discernible benefits. This can first be answered by assessing the usefulness of the country’s enlarged military and the degree to which it keeps the country safe from any outside threat.  

This can be looked at by comparing military spending in Poland with that of other countries in its geographical and political location (i.e. those Central Eastern European countries that are members of NATO and the EU).  Poland spends far more on defence than any other country in CEE. This is not only true relatively but also in absolute terms – with the second largest defence spender in CEE, the Czech Republic, having a defence budget that is more than three times less than that in Poland. Furthermore, the trend in CEE is for governments, such as those in the Czech Republic and Romania, to cut their defence spending.

In recent years Poland’s military spending has not just been geared towards national defence. Poland has been engaged in a number of costly offensive actions, most notably in Afghanistan and Iraq, sending the third largest number of troops to Iraq out of any of the countries engaged in this conflict.  Poland also committed itself to the building of the US National Defence Shield on its territory. President Komorowski has recently criticised Obama for cancelling this and declared that Poland should push ahead with its own project of building an independent shield. The justification for this is that it will be needed to protect the patriot missiles that the USA still propose to situate in Poland, although perhaps a safer and cheaper option would be not to allow these missiles into Poland in the first place? 

Michał Kalecki was one of the first to recognise how state spending on the military was partly used to help enhance economic growth; and how private capital preferred military spending over other forms of investment as it helped to boost private profits without competing with businesses in other more conventional economic markets. It may not be a palatable conclusion, but it is nevertheless true, that government spending on weapons can help to boost industry and employment. For example Huta Stalowa Wola has recently signed a deal with the military worth more than 500m złoty.

Whilst military spending can boost employment and economic growth, the AmericanKeynesian economist Paul Krugman has recently asked,  ‘why would anyone prefer spending on destruction to spending on construction, prefer building weapons to building bridges?’ To put it another way, would it not be better for the Polish government to build new hospitals and schools or use its steel industries to help produce wind turbines, rather than make weapons that kill children as they explode in Afghan villages? 

The more that resources are directed towards destruction, the less that we have for economic and social construction. As Martin Luther King once stated: ‘A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defence than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual doom’.

White doesn’t always mean privileged: why Femen's Ukrainian context matters

An extremely interesting article has been written by Agata Pyzik in the New Statesman on the controversy surrounding the Ukrainian feminist movement Femen. It places divisions within the feminist movement in Europe, including controversies surrounding Muslim women in France, in the context of the uneven development between Eastern and Western Europe. It is well worth reading:

Despite both the influence of the West over the impoverished ex-Soviet Bloc, and its westernisation after 1989, eastern Europe often seems worlds apart from its richer counterpart.
That's an important context to remember when considering the Ukrainian feminist collective Femen. They come from a country with an extreme and enormous sex industry, widespread abuse of women, and also "third world" levels of poverty. Femen's performances often take place in eastern European countries known for their lack of respect for hugly demonstrating in the west, stopping various international summits and ceremonial affairs.

 Read more.......